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Comparing inventory demand forecasts

Published May 1975

Title from cover

"Prepared for: Research and Development Division Naval Supply Systems Command, Washington, D.C. 20367"--Cover

"May 1975"--Cover


Author(s) subject terms: Forecasting demand, statistical variability, inventory forecasts, exponential smoothing

Includes bibliographical references (p. 50)

Technical report; 1975

Continued efforts to compare exponential smoothing with other alternatives to demand forecasting are summarized. Using stock-out risk at one extreme and oversupply at the other, the effects of variability in forecasting, even when accurate with respect to the mean, are highlighted. Using a normal model, exponential smoothing is identified as a major source of variability. Various forecast methods are compared using simulation relative to mean squared error when mean demand is allowed to vary according to specified patterns. In almost all circumstances, exponential smoothing consistently emerges as a first choice. The same alternatives are compared using real demand data and the results show exponential smoothing and maximum likelihood to be essentially equivalent

Publisher Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School
Pages 62
Language en_US
Call number ocn428439582
Digitizing sponsor Naval Postgraduate School, Dudley Knox Library
Book contributor Naval Postgraduate School, Dudley Knox Library
Collection navalpostgraduateschoollibrary; fedlink; americana
Notes some content may be lost due to the binding of the book.

Full catalog record MARCXML

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Naval Postgraduate School, Dudley Knox Library
by Eads, Catherine T.;Dolk, Daniel R.;Smith, Pamela A.